000 AXNT20 KNHC 011159 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CHRIS HEADED TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CENTER OF THIS TROPICAL STORM IS NEAR 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...EAST OF ANTIGUA AT 01/1200 UTC. T.S. CHRIS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 8 KT AND THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. THE CLOUD TOPS REACH AT LEAST 50000 FEET AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES REACH -78C. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W. LINGERING PRECIPITATION STILL IS POSSIBLE IN THESE OTHER TWO AREAS. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 22N54W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. SOME OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT IS ON TOP OF AND AROUND T.S. CHRIS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS WAVE ARE MIXED WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT OVER VENEZUELA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM THE HONDURAS COAST TO 20N EAST OF 83W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W INCLUDING COVERING THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 17N16W 12N26W 10N30W 8N42W 13N53W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 14W AND 23W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. THE 26N101W LOW CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE COMBINED ITSELF WITH THE REMNANT OF THE SECOND LOW CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO...WHICH WAS COVERING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. STILL NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE AREA. A THIRD LOW CENTER IS IN THE GULF WATER JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A FOURTH LOW CENTER... WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING A SMALL AMOUNT OF AREA IS ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA. A FIFTH LOW CENTER IS OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE BIGGEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR 26N72W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER GOES FROM CUBA TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM EAST TO SOUTH AROUND THE LOW CENTER'S CIRCULATION...FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W. A SECOND TROUGH COMES FROM A 1012 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 34N70W TO 32N72W TO 29N76W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS OVER THE WATER IN BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL THE STRONG DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS WEAKENED AND NOW ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 16N TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE HIGH CENTER BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N45W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 28N47W TO ANOTHER ATLANTIC LOW CENTER NEAR 24N55W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH...FROM 20N AND NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 32N31W TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N45W TO A 1021 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 25N63W TO 26N74W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A DEEP LAYER CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH IS BRINGING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO THE WATERS NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONNECTED FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 30N45W TO 25N44W TO THE 22N54W LOW CENTER WHICH IS NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 31N37W...WITH A TROUGH FROM IT TO 26N38W AND 21N45W. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W TO AFRICA. $$ MT