000 AXNT20 KNHC 010625 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS 16.5N 58.8W AT 01/0600 UTC... ABOUT 175 NM/325 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 22N55W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. SOME OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT IS ON TOP OF THE DEPRESSION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N25W 10N28W 4N28W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT OVER VENEZUELA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/86W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM THE HONDURAS COAST TO 17N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM BELIZE TO 20N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 17N16W 13N20W 11N26W 10N30W 8N41W 13N53W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 23W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N30W 6N37W 10N46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS INLAND NEAR 26N101W IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THIS LOW CENTER. REMNANTS OF A SECOND LOW CENTER...WHICH 24 HOURS EARLIER HAD BEEN MOVING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... POSSIBLY ARE BEING ABSORBED BY THE FRINGES OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 26N101W LOW CENTER. SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW STILL REMAINS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND REACHING INLAND TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A THIRD LOW CENTER IS IN THE GULF WATER JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A FOURTH LOW CENTER...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING A SMALL AMOUNT OF AREA IS ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA. A FIFTH LOW CENTER IS OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE BIGGEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR 25N72W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER GOES FROM CUBA TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N69W 25N71W 22N72W. A SECOND TROUGH COMES FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 34N71W TO 32N72W TO 29N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS OVER THE WATER IN BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W COVERING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE MOUCHOIR PASSAGE...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...AND SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE HIGH CENTER BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N45W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 28N47W TO ANOTHER ATLANTIC LOW CENTER NEAR 24N55W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH...FROM 20N AND NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. IT GOES FROM A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER NEAR 36N26W TO 32N32W TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N46W TO 28N66W...BROKEN UP A BIT BY THE 34N71W 29N76W AND 28N69W 22N72W TROUGHS...AND CONTINUING ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 27N/28N...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS IN A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 30N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N54W BEYOND 32N48W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONNECTED FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 30N45W TO 25N44W TO THE 22N55W LOW CENTER WHICH IS NORTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 31N37W...WITH A TROUGH FROM IT TO 26N38W AND 21N45W. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W TO AFRICA. $$ MT 000 AXNT20 KNHC 010625 RRA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS 16.5N 58.8W AT 01/0600 UTC... ABOUT 175 NM/325 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 14 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 22N55W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER GOES FROM 18N TO 25N BETWEEN 51W AND 60W. SOME OF THIS CYCLONIC FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT IS ON TOP OF THE DEPRESSION. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N25W 10N28W 4N28W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 15N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W. A SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT OVER VENEZUELA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OBSERVED WITH THIS WAVE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OF THIS WAVE. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W/86W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW CENTER INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM THE HONDURAS COAST TO 17N BETWEEN 84W AND 88W...AND ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM BELIZE TO 20N. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 17N16W 13N20W 11N26W 10N30W 8N41W 13N53W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 15N BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 23W...AND WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N30W 6N37W 10N46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS INLAND NEAR 26N101W IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THIS LOW CENTER. REMNANTS OF A SECOND LOW CENTER...WHICH 24 HOURS EARLIER HAD BEEN MOVING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...POSSIBLY ARE BEING ABSORBED BY THE FRINGES OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 26N101W LOW CENTER. SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW STILL REMAINS IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND REACHING INLAND TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A THIRD LOW CENTER IS IN THE GULF WATER JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A FOURTH LOW CENTER... WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING A SMALL AMOUNT OF AREA IS ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA. A FIFTH LOW CENTER IS OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE BIGGEST AND MOST PRONOUNCED OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NEAR 25N72W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER GOES FROM CUBA TO 30N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N69W 25N71W 22N72W. A SECOND TROUGH COMES FROM A 1010 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 34N71W TO 32N72W TO 29N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS OVER THE WATER IN BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 73W COVERING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE MOUCHOIR PASSAGE...IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...AND SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY WIND FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES FROM THE HIGH CENTER BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N45W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 28N47W TO ANOTHER ATLANTIC LOW CENTER NEAR 24N55W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH...FROM 20N AND NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. IT GOES FROM A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER NEAR 36N26W TO 32N32W TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 26N46W TO 28N66W...BROKEN UP A BIT BY THE 34N71W 29N76W AND 28N69W 22N72W TROUGHS...AND CONTINUING ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 27N/28N...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS IN A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 30N54W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N54W BEYOND 32N48W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONNECTED FROM ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 30N45W TO 25N44W TO THE 22N55W LOW CENTER WHICH IS NORTH OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 31N37W...WITH A TROUGH FROM IT TO 26N38W AND 21N45W. THIS FEATURE IS EMBEDDED IN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 30W TO AFRICA. $$ MT