000 AXNT20 KNHC 311040 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N54W 12N56W 6N56W MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N55W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING ACROSS THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND 62W. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 11N58W 11N68W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY...EVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 20 KT. THE LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA MAY BE DUE MORE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW AND NOT THE WAVE AS MUCH. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE 26N74W LOW CENTER. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW IF THE WAVE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE FEW NEARBY SHOWERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W/95W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. IT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W...AND FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE LAND JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. OTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N95W 13N93W 12N89W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 9N19W 9N29W 12N45W 12N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W...FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS INLAND NEAR 25N102W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THIS LOW CENTER. A SECOND LOW CENTER NOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 27N93W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 90W AND 97W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS CURVING TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 22N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM TO 300 NM NORTH OF 31N71W 24N80W 30N91W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 26N74W LOW CENTER TO THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE JAMAICA CHANNEL FROM HAITI TO CUBA TO JAMAICA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W. THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SECTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 24N67W TO BERMUDA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW PRETTY MUCH COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA... BUT REALLY ONLY IN THE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IN SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 32N45W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 28N47W TO ANOTHER ATLANTIC LOW CENTER NEAR 24N55W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH...FROM 20N AND NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. IT GOES FROM A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER NEAR 35N26W TO 26N43W TO A 1022 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 27N54W TO THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA. $$ MT