000 AXNT20 KNHC 310608 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N52W 12N55W 6N56W MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE EARLIER LOW PRESSURE CENTER ALONG THIS WAVE HAS DISSIPATED. THIS WAVE IS CLOSE TO A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS BEGINNING TO FORM NEAR 15N53W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N53W 9N52W 11N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N52W 12N54W 11N57W 11N62W. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW IF NECESSARY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 20 KT. SHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE 27N74W LOW CENTER. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW IF THE WAVE IS HELPING TO ENHANCE THE FEW NEARBY SHOWERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 93W/94W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. IT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE PRECIPITATION IS RIGHT AT THE COAST FROM NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA TO SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...TO 100W JUST OFF THE MEXICO COAST. ONE PRECIPITATION CELL IS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ISTHMUS... ANOTHER CELL IS JUST NORTHWEST OF GUATEMALA...AND WEST OF THE AND SOUTHWESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 10N17W 7N25W 11N40W 13N53W 11N57W 11N66W. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TEMPERATURES EXISTS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 12N EAST OF 40W TO AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS INLAND NEAR 25N101W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THIS LOW CENTER. A SECOND LOW CENTER NOW IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS CURVING TOWARD THE CENTER FROM THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. NO PRECIPITATION IS AROUND THIS LOW CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 22N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM TO 300 NM NORTH OF 33N68W 26N77W 27N86W 30N91W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N74W LOW CENTER TO THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE TROUGH/ CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE JAMAICA CHANNEL FROM HAITI TO CUBA TO JAMAICA. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 80W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO 24N66W TO 32N66W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW PRETTY MUCH COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF 67W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PRESENT...EXCEPT FOR A FEW CELLS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WESTERN PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR 35N42W TO A LOW CENTER NEAR 27N47W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EAST OF THIS TROUGH...FROM 20N AND NORTHWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. IT GOES FROM A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTER NEAR 35N26W TO 28N40W TO 26N56W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N. $$ MT