000 AXNT20 KNHC 302331 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W SOUTH OF 16N. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 52W-58W. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST AROUND 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 72W-83W. AN AREA OF MODERATE SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA... PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH OVER PUERTO RICO ALONG 22N65W 15N65W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO ALONG 92W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE WAVE IS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N20W 8N30W 13N40W 13N50W 9N60W. A CLUSTER OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 13W-19W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 18W-32W... AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 36W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. BROAD 10-15 KT SELY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 80W-90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 87W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 95W-105W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N91W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER. A SMALL UPPER HIGH IS OVER S MEXICO NEAR 17N93W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. LASTLY... AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE NE GULF N OF 23N AND E OF 87W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SELY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE DOMINATE FEATURES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. ELY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 KT PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ELY FLOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 80W-90W. AN UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N66W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 27N60W. ANOTHER 1022 MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N26W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 20W-75W. MUCH OF THIS REGION IS ALSO COVERED BY A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF NOTE...A LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N74W. A TROUGH IS FURTHER E N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 50W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 18N. $$ FORMOSA