000 AXNT20 KNHC 301111 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N48W 11N50W 5N52W MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N50W. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N47W 11N47W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED AND NOW COVER THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. LINGERING PRECIPITATION OVER PUERTO RICO STILL IS POSSIBLE. ALL THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NOW ARE OVER THE WATERS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALSO FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 63W AND 66W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 89W/90W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS WAVE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH GUATEMALA TO EL SALVADOR. THE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD AND NOW ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 18N16W 13N30W 11N47W 9N52W 8N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS IS IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 94W AND THE MEXICO COAST. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. SHOWERS FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 87W AND 95W. REMNANT WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NO PRECIPITATION IS AROUND THIS CENTER. A 25N74W ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST OF CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW CENTER REACHES THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 18N WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A FLORIDA PANHANDLE-TO-SOUTH CAROLINA RIDGE REACHES THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 77W AND 88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST SOUTH OF CUBA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GOES FROM THIS HIGH CENTER TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE 72W/73W TROPICAL WAVE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE IN NICARAGUA...BRINGING ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO COASTAL AND EASTERN NICARAGUA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO GUATEMALA AND SOUTHWARD. THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR 37N50W TO 27N53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE PRESENT WITH THIS TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EXISTS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ABOUNDS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 60W. NO EASILY-WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTERS ARE APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N29W TO 27N46W TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 29N74W TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IN THE AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA/ SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA/ THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. $$ MT