000 AXNT20 KNHC 300611 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AT 10N. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ONLY APPEAR MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W. 64W/65W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM 15N TO 18N INCLUDING REACHING PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS RIGHT NOW...BETWEEN 64W AND 71W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM ST.KITTS AND NEVIS TO ANGUILLA. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE FROM SIX HOURS NOW IS NOT APPARENT. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 20 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE HAS REACHED EASTERN PUERTO RICO. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 8N13W 17N18W 13N28W 10N47W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W... AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS APPROACHING NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER ALREADY REACHES INLAND AT LEAST 200 NM WEST OF THE CENTER. POSSIBLE SHOWERS FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W. ANY EARLIER PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO HAVE DRIED UP ALREADY. A SECOND LOW CENTER IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER IS WITHIN 180 NM TO THE SOUTH AND WITHIN 120 NM ELSEWHERE. IT APPEARS THAT ANY EARLIER PRECIPITATION FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 87W AND 92W ALREADY HAS ENDED. WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW EXISTS AROUND A NOT-WELL- DEFINED LOW CENTER IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. NO PRECIPITATION IS AROUND THIS CENTER. A 25N74W ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW CENTER IS ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST OF CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS LOW CENTER REACHES THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CUBA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 18N WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A FLORIDA PANHANDLE-TO-SOUTH CAROLINA RIDGE REACHES THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 77W AND 88W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM TAMPA TO CEDAR KEY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST SOUTH OF CUBA FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF 25N WEST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW GOES FROM THIS HIGH CENTER TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING AROUND PUERTO RICO...COVERING PUERTO RICO MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED AND RANDOMLY-LOCATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS SPREAD OUT ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 83W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH GOES FROM A LOW CENTER NEAR 37N50W TO 27N53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE PRESENT WITH THIS TROUGH. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EXISTS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ABOUNDS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES BETWEEN THE AFRICA COAST AND 60W. NO EASILY-WELL-DEFINED LOW CENTERS ARE APPARENT. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N30W TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 28N60W TO A 1020 MB HIGH CENTER IN THE AREA OF SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA/SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA/ THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. $$ MT