000 AXNT20 KNHC 292332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 8N47W. ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW/WAVE FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 46W-49W. THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD. ...TROPICAL WAVES... VERY ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 63W-78W. THE WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...BRINGING AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO THAT AREA AND A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FLOODING. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 20 KT. CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BETWEEN 80W-92W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N16W 12N30W 7N50W 7N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 13W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 22W-25W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 55W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER S ALABAMA NEAR 32N85W. BROAD 10-15 KT SELY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 81W-87W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 90W-93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 95W-99W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 93W-105W. ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N89W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 83W-92W. EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SELY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE DOMINATE FEATURES IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES MENTIONED ABOVE. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 81W-83W. 10-20KT TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-22N BETWEEN 83W-92W. ANOTHER SMALL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 16N67W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N72W. ANOTHER 1020 MB HIGH IS S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N30W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 22N BETWEEN 20W-75W. MUCH OF THIS REGION IS ALSO COVERED BY A DENSE LAYER OF SAHARAN DUST E OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF NOTE...A LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W. A TROUGH IS FURTHER E N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 5N-30N E OF 50W WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 18N. $$ FORMOSA