000 AXNT20 KNHC 290606 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 29 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W/41W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 20 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE FROM 8N TO 9N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXIST FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N60W TO 13N62W TO 5N62W MOVING WEST 20 TO 25 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A DEFINITE INVERTED V SHAPE AND LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 120 NM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES. A CENTRAL-MOVING-INTO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N77W IN CUBA TO 18N79W 5N79W MOVING WEST 20 KT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF BAHAMAS-TO-STRAITS OF FLORIDA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER AND TROUGH. THE FLOW ACROSS THE WAVE ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ANTICYCLONIC AT THE UPPER LEVELS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ THAN TO THIS WAVE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ 13N16W 14N24W 10N39W 8N44W 7N50W 8N61W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A FEW CLUSTERS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 18W AND 20W MAY ACCOMPANY THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. CYCLONIC FLOW AT SOME LEVEL IS APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXIST FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS EXIST FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ABOUND. ONE LOW CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AFTER PASSING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE LAST 36 HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS AND INTERIOR SECTIONS BETWEEN 90W AND 100W. A SECOND LOW CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE LAST THIRTY HOURS. ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THIS LOW CENTER HAS DISAPPEARED. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. A THIRD LOW CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/SOUTH FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...ABOUT 360 NM WEST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WAVE AROUND 16N. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/BAHAMAS LOW CENTER AND TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ABOUT 150 NM SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA. ONE TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA...WHILE THE OTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL-INTO-THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ABOUT 380 NM EAST OF BERMUDA...TO NORTH FLORIDA...AND TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ARE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND FLORIDA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ABOUNDS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 60W. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 25N27W AND ANOTHER IS NEAR 28N30W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 27N54W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WEST OF THIS LOW...GOING AS FAR SOUTH AS 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W... AND MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. $$ MT