000 AXNT20 KNHC 270005 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN TEXAS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...AND IN ADJACENT GULF WATERS NORTH OF 27N WEST OF 92W. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NO LONGER POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS AND FORECAST FROM YOUR LOCAL NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE, AND STORM SUMMARIES FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER ACUS43 KWBC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDSCCNS3 FOR ADDITIONAL AND FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ANY RAPID ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N39W 15N41W 5N41W MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W SOUTH OF 23N IS MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. THIS WAVE WAS MOVED MORE TO THE WEST AT 26/1800 UTC IN ORDER TO AGREE MORE WITH THE CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM 45 NM NORTH OF BARBADOS TO GUADELOUPE AND EVENTUALLY THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXTEND FROM NORTHERN PUERTO RICO TO 25N BETWEEN 62W AND 68W. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. THE WAVE IS APPROACHING A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 19N...MOVING THROUGH GUATEMALA INTO MEXICO...WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA AND 95W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ 16N17W 15N23W 14N28W 8N42W 10N53W 14N59W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND 40W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W...AND FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 30N100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO EAST TEXAS AND BEYOND NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THIS RIDGE COVERS PART OF THE REST OF THE GULF WATERS EAST OF THE RIDGE. THE SOUTHERN END OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES SOUTHERN GEORGIA. NORTHEASTERN WIND FLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THIS TROUGH EVENTUALLY COVERS THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF...AND FLOWS DIRECTLY TO A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS...AND THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FROM THE CENTRAL PART NORTHWARD...EAST OF THE 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN SAN ANTONIO AND HOUSTON. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE MAIN FEATURE AT THIS TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE AREA FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF THIS TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...POSSIBLY WITH THE 63W/64W TROPICAL WAVE...IS SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS RECEIVING SOME MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AS A RESULT OF BEING ON THE FRINGES OF THE FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N64W LOW CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING PUSHED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE WEST OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 17N WEST OF 83W OVER THE OPEN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN 18 AND 54W FROM 10 TO 40N. LOTS OF FAIR...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THIS REGION AS WELL. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS MOVING N OUT OF THE TAFB AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY NEAR 30N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FAR SW ATLANTIC...WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W. THE SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY A 1029MB HIGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM ITS CENTER NEAR 36N44W. 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS PERSIST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THIS HIGH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOUND IN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W. THESE WINDS ALONG THE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DENSE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA THROUGH 55W...WITH A LITTLE LESS CONCENTRATION NOTED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 37/38W. $$ MT