000 AXNT20 KNHC 261814 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS IS NOW CENTERED BETWEEN HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS FAR ENOUGH INLAND THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE STILL EXISTS IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREA FROM 25N/29N BETWEEN 92W/97W. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W S OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE FEATURE IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE ALONG 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 7N/12N IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15-20 KT. THIS WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS A TROF BUT LOW CLOUD MOTIONS FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOW A LARGE/BROAD AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE IS MINIMAL. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 24N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V SHAPE. SCATTERED WEAK/ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IS EVIDENT BETWEEN 54W AND 62W FROM 14N TO 20N. THIS WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND TOMORROW...AND GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS AS THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE NORTH. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W S OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY...THOUGH THERE IS SOME SLIGHT CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE INTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO BE ACTIVE...TRIGGERING NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF PANAMA AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST NORTH OF THIS WAVE FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 75W AND 83W. AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF CUBA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N13W 10N27W 12N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 11N61W TO PANAMA NEAR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF PANAMA. SMALL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 52W THROUGH 18W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 15W AND 18W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE AXIS IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS AND W LOUISIANA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW BETWEEN HOUSTON AND SAN ANTONIO...ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND AN ELONGATED UPPER TROF TO ITS NW EXTENDING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. DRY AIR/FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH SW GULF UNDER UPPER RIDGING. MOISTURE AND PATCHES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STREAM ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE RIDGE FROM 21 TO 24N BETWEEN 81 AND 89W. AT THE SURFACE...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH STRONGER SE FLOW AND WIND WAVES IN THE WESTERN GULF...AS THE HIGH INTERACTS WITH THE LOW TO ITS WEST. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH ITS CENTER NEAR 17N81W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH/RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN...ALONG WITH ITS INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE VICINITY...IS GENERATING PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HAITI THROUGH 84W FROM 17 TO 22N. MOSTLY DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE CENTRAL/EAST CARIBBEAN FROM 11 TO 17N AND BETWEEN 65 TO 83W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE ARE BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES. 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN 18 AND 54W FROM 10 TO 40N. LOTS OF FAIR...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER DOMINATES THIS REGION AS WELL. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS MOVING N OUT OF THE TAFB AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY NEAR 30N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FAR SW ATLANTIC...WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W. THE SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY A 1029MB HIGH EXTENDING SOUTH FROM ITS CENTER NEAR 36N44W. 10-20 KT TRADE WINDS PERSIST IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTH OF THIS HIGH...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOUND IN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W. THESE WINDS ALONG THE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD WEST THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DENSE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA THROUGH 55W...WITH A LITTLE LESS CONCENTRATION NOTED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 37/38W. $$ WILLIS