000 AXNT20 KNHC 260549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 26 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS JUST INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS NEAR 27.5N 97.5W MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN SQUALLS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 90W-98W. A FEW BUOYS OFFSHORE INDICATE WINDS NEAR 25 KT..ESPECIALLY IN CONVECTION. SINCE THE SURFACE LOW CENTER IS OVER LAND...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER EMERGES OR REFORMS OFFSHORE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP. REGARDLESS IF THAT OCCURS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 21N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE DOES HAVE SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CURVATURE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 13N EVIDENT ON NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES. THE WAVE IS AN AREA OF THICK SAHARAN DUST THAT IS SUPPRESSING ANY AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THAT SECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15-20 KT. THE AREA OF LOW PRES THAT HAS BEEN ALONG THE WAVE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE DATA. HOWEVER...THE WAVE STILL REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH A TITLED INVERTED V-SHAPE EVIDENT. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO IDENTITY. THE POSITION IS BASED UPON CONTINUITY OF FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W S OF 17N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER IT MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ OVER COSTA RICA SPREADING INTO THE EAST PACIFIC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 11N29W 7N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 10N60W TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. SMALL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA OUT TO ABOUT 25W LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E VENEZUELA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 60W-63W AND OVER W COLOMBIA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 76W-78W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE REGION IS IN THE WEST GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW JUST INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 90W-98W. FOR MORE DETAILS SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 27N87W. DEBRIS MOISTURE IS STREAMING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER HIGH FROM THE CONVECTION IN THE W GULF ACROSS THE SE U.S. AND THEN SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BRANCH OF THE ANTICYCLONE. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS VERY SCATTERED. ONE SMALL PATCH OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 82W-84W. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES RIDGING HAS BUILT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO A 1020 MB HIGH IN THE E GULF NEAR 28N85W. A WEDGE OF DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN 85W-89W KEEPING SKIES MAINLY FAIR. SURFACE WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT E OF 89W. W OF 89W...WINDS ARE STRONGER WITH A FEW BUOYS REPORTING 25 KT IN THE NW GULF ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF CONVECTION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO WEAK ILL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BOTH OF THESE WAVES ARE RATHER BENIGN ONLY ENHANCING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE ITCZ. SMALL PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MOVING SWWARD FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND AN UPPER HIGH IN THE E GULF. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS PRODUCING BROKEN CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 68W WITH PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE. A WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE AREA ALREADY ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE WILL BE MOVING INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER WED AND TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ON THU INCREASING THE CHANCE OF RAIN AS IT APPROACHES. TRADE WINDS HAVE DECREASED FROM GALE FORCE EARLIER THIS WEEK TO MORE MODERATE TONIGHT AND THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MAIN SURFACE FEATURE IN THE ATLC IS A DOMINATING BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A 1027 MB HIGH CENTER NEAR 37N52W AND A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 36N44W. BESIDES FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW AREAS OF SOME WEATHER IN THE ATLC MAINLY CONTRIBUTED TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE W ATLC OFF THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE E GULF. TWO UPPER LOW'S ONE NEAR 29N64W AND THE OTHER NEAR 28N55W ARE RATHER DRY FEATURES ONLY PRODUCING SCATTERED BROKEN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE S AND E SIDE OF THEIR CIRCULATION. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 45W AND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TO NEAR 32N20W. THE UW-CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER ANALYSIS FROM 03 UTC DEPICTS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THICK DUST IS BEHIND THE WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN...E OF 55W FROM 10N-30N. SCATTERED MORE MODERATE DUST HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. $$ CANGIALOSI