000 AXNT20 KNHC 250459 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE JUL 25 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO DRIFTING NORTHWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER MUCH OF THE W GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 92W INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TO THE TEXAS COAST. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW IS LESS WELL-DEFINED AS EARLIER WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 21N WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH A EQUALLY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LATEST SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 11N-22N BETWEEN 45W-52W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W/70W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK WAVE WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 7N28W 13N45W 8N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 14W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE 4N33W-7N40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF W OF 88W ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER SW MEXICO. THE 1009 MB LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE. AN UPPER LOW IS OFF THE SE US COAST IN THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA TAMPA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER W CUBA HAVE MOVED INTO THE S GULF FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 83W-87W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER S FLORIDA HAVE MOVED INTO THE E GULF FROM 25N27N BETWEEN THE E COAST OF FLORIDA W TO 83W. THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO WEAK TROPICAL WAVES ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 18N W OF 76W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE AREA E OF 76W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE W GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER CUBA HAVE MOVED INTO THE N CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 10N FROM 76W-80W IS DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS CLEAR DUE TO DRY AIR AND THE PRESENCE OF AFRICAN DUST. STRONG TRADEWINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE SE US NEAR 30N77W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS FLORIDA S OF DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DIPPING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 31N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS UPPER LOW IS INDUCING A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NE ALONG 25N67W TO BEYOND 32N62W. A SECOND UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N50W COVERING THE AREA FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 44W-58W. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 15N54W COVERING THE AREA S OF 22N W OF 42W TO OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 28N10W SW 25N28W TO 22N36W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION. A STRONG SURGE OF AFRICAN DUST COVERS THE THE E ATLC S OF 30N E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE4 NEAR 46W/47W...THUS LIMITING CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA. WITH THE DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS IN THE ATLC. $$ WALLACE