000 AXNT20 KNHC 240014 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1011 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N39W. BROAD LOW LEVEL CURVATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ARE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 14N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. WAVE IS WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION ARE NOTED. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE JUST NORTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... AND OVER LAKE MARACAIBO IN WESTERN VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 8N20W 11N35W 7N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS WEST OF 30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS INLAND ALONG 31N FROM ALABAMA TO E TEXAS. THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 10-15 KT SLY SURFACE FLOW S OF THE FRONT DUE TO RIDGING. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE ENTIRE GULF. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXITING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SEE ABOVE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. WLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 24N AND W OF 85W. ELSEWHERE...SLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 85W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... TWO TROPICAL WAVE ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 75W-80W. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM EL SALVADOR TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 87W-93W. OF INTEREST...STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. A COL AREA IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SELY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER CUBA N OF 19N BETWEEN 74W-83W. ANOTHER COL IS S OF HISPANIOLA. A THIRD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 12N65W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER VENEZUELA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 60W-74W. EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... AND THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AIRMASS CONVECTION IS OVER NE FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 80W-82W. A DOMINATE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N53W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER N OF 24N BETWEEN 25W-70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 27N73W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 65W-85W. A TROUGH IS FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 57W-65W. A LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 15N45W. A COL IS NEAR 20N35W. ANOTHER LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 15N45W. $$ FORMOSA