000 AXNT20 KNHC 231045 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 23 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W S OF 20N WITH A 1013 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTER ARE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS WEAK AND LOW AMPLITUDE AS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 97W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY OVER S MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC REGION AS WELL AS BEING BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS MASKING THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FROM 90W-97W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 9N19W 11N32W 8N47W 6N54W AND ACROSS PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 8N TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA FROM 54W-56W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N FROM 75W-84W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA... PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA. CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 13W-20W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 24W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N89W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING W TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS/NE MEXICO NEAR THE BORDER. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST PRECEDING THE APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED TROUGH NOW RESIDING OVER THE NE US. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL INLAND OVER THE SE US...HOWEVER THE ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO THE GULF N OF 28N E OF LOUISIANA. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS COVERING THE S GULF S OF 24N W OF 86W ANCHORED OVER THE E PACIFIC NEAR A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THAT BASIN. CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA COVERING THE AREA E OF 83W. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE A LINE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N87W TO 22N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W WITH A SECOND WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER HIGH OFF THE SE COAST OF FLORIDA TO OVER THE JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N21N BETWEEN 73W-81W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA. CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS OVER PANAMA. STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED BY LATER TONIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 26N79W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING S OF 32N INTO THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 71W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N W OF 74W TO OVER FLORIDA. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 28N63W SW INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N64W TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS DIPPING INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 30W-50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT N OF THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA NEAR 25N14W ALONG 24N28W TO NEAR 17N40W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC GIVING THE AREA E OF 70W LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MUCH LESS SHOWERS. LARGE AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA TO ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN MOSTLY S OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. $$ WALLACE