000
AXNT20 KNHC 220510
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 22 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 20N MOVING W 20 KT. BROAD 
LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF DENSE AFRICAN 
DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
WEAK...NARROW LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITH AN AREA OF 
DENSE AFRICAN DUST...THUS NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK BUT 
WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY 
CONDITIONS...NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. 
    
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS 
MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND S MEXICO AS WELL AS BEING 
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS MASKING THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS INLAND AND NOT IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N16W 10N28W 7N37W 6N43W 2N51W AND 
JUST S OF PANAMA AND OVER COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 15N-19N E OF 18W. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-7N 
BETWEEN 36W-46W. CLUSTERS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 
7N-13N BETWEEN 21W-29W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 27N88W WITH A SECOND WEAKER 
UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR BROWNSVILLE. BROAD UPPER 
HIGH OVER CENTRAL TENNESSEE EXTENDS S TO THE N GULF COAST AND A 
SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF S OF 23N W OF 90W 
ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE FAR W ATLC 
AND FROM OVER CUBA TO JUST E OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 24N87W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH 
E OF 87W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. 
DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SIMILAR ACTIVITY OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF 23N W OF 90W. ALSO 
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS 
FLORIDA AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS WITH A 1015 MB HIGH 
ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W. 
   
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W 
OF 83W WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS 
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC JUST E OF FLORIDA. AN INDUCED UPPER 
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ROUGHLY CENTERED NEAR 13N77W. 
A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 71W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S HAITI 
WITHIN A 45 NM RADIUS OF 18.5N73W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA FROM 10N76W TO 
NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN 
THE E PACIFIC REGION. STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE 
CARIBBEAN S OF 18N WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED LATER IN THE 
WEEKEND. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ACROSS CUBA 
INTO THE W ATLC JUST E OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W ALONG 27N71W TO AN 
UPPER HIGH NEAR 33N63W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE REGION 
NEAR 35N71W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA NEAR 
JACKSONVILLE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE FEATURES FROM 
26N68W ACROSS BERMUDA TO WELL N OF THE REGION. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 22N-28N W OF 74W TO 
OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 
28N. A MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 28N44W WITH 
FLOW WITHIN 200 NM. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ATLC EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA NEAR 22N17W ALONG 20N39W TO 
20N56W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC GIVING THE ATLC E 
OF 65W LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MUCH LESS SHOWERS. LARGE AREA 
OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA 
S OF 26N E OF 55W. 
 
$$
WALLACE