000 AXNT20 KNHC 211802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 43.1N 67.4W AT 21/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 215 MILES WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING NE AT 23 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEE LAST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AS THE CYCLONE ACQUIRES EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BERYL LACKS ANY DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NE OF THE CENTER FROM 42N-46N BETWEEN 63W-66W WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS INLAND OVER NOVA SCOTIA. BERYL SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ADJUSTED ALONG 31W/32W S OF 18N BASED ON SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASSAGE. A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 7N. THE WAVE/LOW IS MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCATED BETWEEN 33/35W AND 5/8N. SHIP OBS THIS MORNING DEPICTED 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W/46W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AGAIN NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION DUE TO THE DENSE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST MOVING W WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE WITH INVERTED V PATTERN IS OBSERVED ON AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 86W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS MOVING WEST THROUGH THE YUCATAN/BELIZE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EVIDENT IN THE ASSOCIATED COASTAL REGION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 7N30W 5N35W 4N45W 3N51W. MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS THE CLUSTER MOVING WEST OF AFRICA WITH AFTERNOON IR ANALYSIS DEPICTING WIDESPREAD MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION BETWEEN 10/14N AND 18/23W. POCKETS OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXIST WEST OF THIS AREA THROUGH 40W WITH THE ONLY STRONG CONVECTION NOTED AROUND AFOREMENTIONED LOW NEAR 7N/32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON IS UPPER TROF JUST WEST OF SW FLORIDA IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. BUOYS/QUIKSCAT INDICATING SOME SURFACE REFLECTION WITH TROF AXIS AND CYCLONIC TURNING OF WINDS EVIDENT. HAVE ANALYZED TROF ACCESS FROM 27N83W TO 24N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THIS TROF IS LOCATED IN THE SW GULF BETWEEN 24/26N AND 84/81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO EXTENDING EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FAR SW ATLANTIC/BAHAMAS...IN CONNECTION WITH THE TROF IF THE SW GULF AND A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE AREA EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROF AXIS SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH 25N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING WEST THROUGH S MEXICO. ASIDE FROM THE WEAK SFC TROF IN THE SW GULF RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS PERSIST ON THE SW SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM S MEXICO INTO THE W CARIBBEAN IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROF IN THE SW GULF TO PRODUCE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. REST OF CARIBBEAN IS MOSTLY DRY ASIDE FROM A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING NORTH FROM THE ABC ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OFF OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE AREA BETWEEN 45W-65W REMAINS COVERED WITH SEVERAL UPPER LOWS AND HIGHS BUT ARE BENIGN AND DRY FEATURES NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER AFRICA WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC COMBINED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE SAME AREA IS GIVING THE ATLC E OF 40W LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MUCH LESS SHOWERS. LEADING EDGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST HAS PROGRESSED TO NEAR 50W. $$ MW/GR