000 AXNT20 KNHC 211543 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 41.7N 69.7W AT 21/1200 UTC OR ABOUT OR ABOUT 35 MILES...NORTHEAST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS AND ABOUT 365 MILES...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.XX MILES NE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS OR XXX WSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MOVING NE AT 18 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND A MORE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE DAY OR SO. BERYL LACKS ANY DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND OVER THE E PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS WITH THE OUTER RAINBANDS AS FAR N OS S MAINE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. THIS POSITION IS BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING A CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THE ACTUAL WAVE LOCATION IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TO THE WEST. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE DUE TO THE DENSE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. AGAIN NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION DUE TO THE DENSE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST. THIS WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFRICAN DUST. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS...NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER RIDGE...BUT IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN THE LOW LEVELS ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 16N16W 6N27W 8N43W 6N55W ACROSS N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 13N-17N E OF 18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 13W-23W AND WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 23W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 26N88W WITH A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI. BROAD UPPER HIGH OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDS S TO THE N GULF COAST AND A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE S GULF S OF 23N ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IN THE FAR W ATLC AND OVER THE E COAST OF FLORIDA ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 30N E OF 85W. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS S MEXICO PRODUCING SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO S OF 20N FROM 93W-97W. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE FROM THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS. REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS RELATIVELY SHOWER-FREE. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 82W WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC AND ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING ENOUGH DIFFLUENCE OVER THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF CUBA WITHIN WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 20N79.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC AND ALONG THE E COAST OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 28N78W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 27N TO OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE AREA S OF 29N W OF 75W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED S OF BERYL NEAR 31N71W COVERING THE AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N71W TO 25N75W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E OF THE UPPER LOW WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 28N66W TO BEYOND 32N64W. THE AREA BETWEEN 45W-65W IS COVERED WITH SEVERAL UPPER LOWS AND HIGHS BUT ARE RATHER BENIGN FEATURES NOT PRODUCING ANY SHOWERS OR CONVECTION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER AFRICA WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC COMBINED WITH THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE SAME AREA IS GIVING THE ATLC E OF 45W LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MUCH LESS SHOWERS. LARGE AREA OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 26N E OF 45W. $$ WALLACE