000 AXNT20 KNHC 201814 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 39.1N 72.6W AT 20/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 1125 MILES SSE OF NEW YORK CITY AND ABOUT 195 MILES SW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING NNE AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERYL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATER AND A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE LAST 6 HORUS WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS OUTER RAIN BANDS ALONG THE COAST FROM NEW JERSEY TO MASSACHUSETTS. ...TROPICAL WAVES AND LOWS... A 1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 14N18W DRIFTING W. A RECENT QUIK-SCAT PASS SHOWED A CLOSED CIRCULATION. PRESENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC TURNING WITH RAIN SHOWERS...THAT ARE BEING SUPPRESSED BY A PLUME OF THICK AFRICAN DUST. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. AFRICA DUST IS E OF THIS WAVE TO THE AFRICAN COAST...FROM 5N-25N. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 22N MOVING W 10 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ALONG 81W/82W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 79W-83W. PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF PANAMA TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N18W 7N25W 6N30W 7N40W 8N50W 10N65W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 12W-20W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE LIGHT AT 5-10 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 79W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 26N88W. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH MOISTURE IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. FURTHER S...RIDGING WITH SW FLOW IS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 23N WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE. EXPECT MORE AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE S GULF S OF 24N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA...WHILE ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS COVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WIND VELOCITIES OF 20-25 KT BETWEEN 65W-80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... RIDGING IS WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 85W. A TROUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN E OF 85W. EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE NEW TROPICAL WAVE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 77W-80W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E ALONG 29N67W 22N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 22N-32N BETWEEN 62W-66W. A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N53W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. T.S. BERYL IS GOING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N70W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FURTHER E NEAR 28N48W. A VERY LARGE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N40W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IS FROM 5N-30N E OF 55W. $$ FORMOSA