000 AXNT20 KNHC 192339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 36.3N 73.5W AT 19/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 135 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA AND ABOUT 390 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS. BERYL IS MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DEEPENED SLIGHTLY TO 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. BERYL HAS BEEN BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LAST NIGHT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS PARTIALLY EXPOSED. SINCE THEN...CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM OF THE CENTER. THE WINDOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS CLOSING IN AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN INCREASED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG 38W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS FAIR SIGNATURE WITH LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON LAST FEW EVENING VIS IMAGES AND SHORTWAVE IR PICTURES. DESPITE THE FAIR SIGNATURE...LITTLE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST NEAR 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE WITH TODAY'S ANALYZED POSITION AS A LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SIMILAR TO THE WAVE TO IT'S EAST...THIS WAVE ALSO HAS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ALONG 76W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER JAMAICA AND A LARGER MORE WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW LOCATED 350 NM NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS INTERACTING WITH THIS WAVE TRIGGERING A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLC. AN EARLY AFTERNOON QUIKSCAT PASS IN THE AREA DISPLAYED THAT STRONGER WINDS...NEAR 25-30 KT... ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N25W 10N35W 6N49W 8N63W. THE ITCZ IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 42W-48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE LESSER ANTILLES LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH OR WEAKNESS EXTENDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERYL ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N ACROSS THE GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS MOVED INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 86W-91W. OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND. IN THE LARGER PICTURE...A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL ATLC SFC RIDGE STRETCHES ACROSS THE GULF TO A 1018 MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. A RATHER WEAK PRES GRADIENT LIES ACROSS THE REGION KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL TROUGH OF BERYL AND AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN FROM 21N91W TO AN UPPER LOW OVER JAMAICA AT 18N78W TO 17N71W. A WEAK BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE S CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO THE N COAST OF VENEZUELA. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR JAMAICA AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW IN THE WEST ATLC IS PRODUCING A WIDE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. SOME OF THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS AND OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO ENHANCED BY THE UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOCAL HIGH TERRAIN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE ITCZ. OUTSIDE OF THE OUTLINED AREAS...THERE ARE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. TRADE WINDS NEAR 20 KT EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY REACH GALE FORCE LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.S. BERYL IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP SLY FLOW E OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STRETCHES FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA TO THE TROPICAL STORM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT FROM 23N-30N W OF 75W. A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY LIES FROM 69W-75W. A MORE IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXISTS FURTHER EAST FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 59W-69W ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH ALONG 21N69W 31N63W AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 36N51W AND TYPICAL TRADE WIND FLOW. MOSTLY FAIR TRANQUIL WEATHER IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE E OF 59W. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS LOCATED BEHIND THE EASTERN-MOST ANALYZED TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED E OF 36W TO AFRICA BETWEEN 7N-25N LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AREA. $$ CANGIALOSI