000 AXNT20 KNHC 190600 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006 ...CORRECTION FOR TIME IN SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 34.5N 73.8W AT 19/0600 UTC OR ABOUT 100 NM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 32N-35N BETWEEN 71W-73W AND FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN 71W-75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 71W-76W. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INCREASE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W S OF 20N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-13N BETWEEN 29W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 21N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS MOVING TO THE W OF AN UPPER TROUGH WITH THE SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N TO THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 71W-74W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W S OF 23N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND INLAND OVER S MEXICO WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION S OF THE AREA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 9N25W 10N36W 7N43W 10N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE 4N12W-7N15W AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 59W-63W. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 11W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL US COVERING THE NW GULF N OF 22N W OF 92W. AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE NE GULF NEAR 28N88W WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E US AND W ATLC INCLUDING THE NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 92W. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 28N86W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVER THE SE GULF WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N E OF 83W TO OVER THE THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SMALL UPPER LOW IS JUST S OF CUBA NEAR 19N79W WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA/PUERTO RICO EXTENDING S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS FROM 63W-72W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO NEAR 16N74W GIVING THE THAT AREA E TO S UPPER FLOW. A SECOND UPPER HIGH IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA COVERING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AT THE BASE OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW N OF 14N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 65W-70W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 20N W OF 82W. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXIST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE NE GULF AND THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 75W OF WHICH T.S. BERYL IS EMBEDDED. ALSO OVER THE W ATLC IS A SECOND LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N68W COVERING THE AREA FROM 60W-73W AND EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER LOW EXTENDS ALONG THE LINE 30N57W-21N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 30N60W TO OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N66W. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED EVEN WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO OVER THE SW ATLC WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N W OF 76W TO THE FLORIDA COAST AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 22N30W. MID LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE S/CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 47W FROM 11N-23N WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 15N46W 20N46W TO 24N43W. THE ATLC IS MAINLY DOMINATED BY A SURFACE 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED N OF THE REGION COVERING THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 70W. $$ WALLACE