000 AXNT20 KNHC 182351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BERYL AT 18/2100 UTC. AT 18/2100 UTC BERYL WAS CENTERED NEAR 33.3N 73.3W OR ABOUT 180 NM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTH AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 34W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS ADJUSTMENT IS BASED UPON CURVATURE OF THE CLOUDS IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS. MUCH OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS WELL BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 26W-33W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W/70W MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE HAS FAIR SIGNATURE WITH THE AXIS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF PATCHES OF MODERATE CONVECTION WHICH EXTENDS WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. THE WAVE IS PASSING S OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N67W. THIS WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA W OF 55W. THE WAVE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN TOMORROW AND THU. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS S MEXICO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD ALONG 90W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AHEAD TO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOST ORGANIZED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 89W-91W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 10N27W 7N43W 10N61W. BESIDES FOR THE TROPICAL WAVES....THE ITCZ IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA APPROACHING THE COASTLINE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LIES IN THE WEST GULF ALONG 28N97W 27N91W. SCATTERED WEAKENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 82W-88W. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 87W-92W. BESIDES FOR THE UNSETTLED WEATHER MENTIONED...LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ESTABLISHED IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF CUBA NEAR 20N80W TOWARDS COSTA RICA. A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN S OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT CUTS THRU THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH IN THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS HELPING TO TRIGGER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND SOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING FARTHER WEST...FROM 81W WESTWARD TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W. FOR MORE INFORMATION REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. AT THE SURFACE TYPICAL TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. OUTSIDE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE ONLY AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS DRAPED FROM NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM BERYL TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. A TAIL OF CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM BERYL WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SFC TROUGH. FARTHER EAST... THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N67W AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 70W HAS ALLOWED THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE TO SPLIT OFF AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH LIES ALONG 28N59W 20N65W. THE SURFACE TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW... IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NE OF PUERTO RICO FROM 19-29N BETWEEN 58-63W. IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ALONG 44W FROM 15N-24N. CURVED LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A KINK THE ISOBARIC PATTERN IS ABOUT THE ONLY EFFECTS OF THIS WEAK FEATURE. A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 37N48W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W. DRY/STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE ATLC E OF 55W. $$ CANGIALOSI