000 AXNT20 KNHC 181759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CENTERED NEAR 32.5N 73.4W AT 18/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 200 NM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING N AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 31W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 20W-26W. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED PAST 24 HOURS AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS PUERTO RICO ALONG 68W S OF 20N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS PASSING S OF AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N66W. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12-16N BETWEEN 66-69W. THE WAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ITCZ IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NE VENEZUELA. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THU. TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 88W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA HONDURAS AND BELIZE. IT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE BASIN INTO S MEXICO AND THE E PACIFIC WED. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 9N31W 6N45W 5N55W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED WITHIN 30-60 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SE FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF WITH WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT. EXCEPT FOR AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION MOVING SW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON THE GULF REMAINS RELATIVELY FREE OF TSTMS BECAUSE OF MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE S GULF. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS W TO E FROM THE TEXAS COAST ACROSS FLORIDA. TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND WED MORNING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHES ACROSS 20N FROM AN UPPER LOW W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 16N96W TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N88W TO AN UPPER LOW S OF CUBA AT 20N80W. ABUNDANT DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS OVER THE BASIN S OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE TYPICAL TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT DOMINATE THE AREA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. OUTSIDE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 68W AND 88W...THE ONLY AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N79W. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SLOWLY INTENSIFY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N57W AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 88W HAS ALLOWED THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE TO SPLIT OFF AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH THE UPPER LOW... IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NE OF PUERTO RICO FROM 19-25N BETWEEN 59-64W. A 1030 MB HIGH IN THE MID- ATLANTIC NEAR 35N46W CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 24N AND W OF 70W. A LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N62W. A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N27W. $$ MUNDELL