000 AXNT20 KNHC 172347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W S OF 15N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 19W-28W. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN WITH THIS WAVE. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 56W-62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 54W-57W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN SEA IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF 21N MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 80W-85W. THE WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 82W-85W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 9N30W 7N40W 8N50W 10N60W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 30W-39W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 44W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N89W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS E TO S GEORGIA NEAR 31N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS INLAND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S ALABAMA TO E TEXAS ALONG 28N81W 32N85W 30N94W. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF S OF 28N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LOW IS CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 300 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 26N. EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER W CUBA... THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND S FLORIDA. ELSEWHERE... A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE MORE CONVECTION OVER S LOUISIANA... E TEXAS... AND THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA. TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST VELOCITIES OF 20 KT ARE RECORDED BY BUOY 42058 N OF COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 72W-77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 78W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TINY LOW IS OVER CUBA NEAR 21N82W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS WLY FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DUE TO RIDGING. EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 36N46W IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 24N AND W OF 70W. A LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 26N61W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 50W-70W. DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 54W-57W. A LARGE HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 19N27W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N AND E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA