000 AXNT20 KNHC 171127 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 16N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE JUST OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA...E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 15W-19W. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59/60W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 55W-59W. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N60W. THIS WAVE IS ALREADY AFFECTING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...BRINGING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THESE ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 78W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 78W-83W. PART OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND NE HONDURAS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO FOUND OVER PANAMA AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH MEXICO ALONG 93W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 7N30W 6N40W 7N50W 10N58W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 28W-37W...AND WITHIN AROUND 80 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE SE U.S. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... INCLUDING THE SE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 29N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED SOUTH OF CUBA AT 21N82W. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AT 21N82W MOVING WWD. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION WSW ACROSS BELIZE AND GUATEMALA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NW AND SW PORTIONS OF THE BASIN MENTIONED ABOVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. WLY FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF THE TROUGH. TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE ARE OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT ARE FOUND JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER E VENZUELA NEAR 7N62W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS MAINLY E FROM N FLORIDA TO 32N68W AND BEYOND. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N60W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW ALONG 60/61W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE SE U.S. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM 29N-32N WEST OF 70W. A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 36N42W IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 15N-30N EAST OF 50W. TYPICAL PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS ARE OVER THAT AREA. A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 18N21W COVERING MOST OF THE E ATLANTIC. $$ GR