000 AXNT20 KNHC 170549 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 17 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 15 KT. MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA...E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 13W-18W. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 52W-57W. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 23N60W. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE WILL AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS SURINAME AND GUYANA. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF COLOMBIA PROBABLY RELATED TO THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER SOUTH MEXICO ALONG 92W S OF 19N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR. THERE IS SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 7N30W 6N40W 9N55W 9N62W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 26W-35W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 35W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND FROM S GEORGIA TO N LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S LOUISIANA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S GEORGIA HAS DIMINISHED. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS NEAR 29N88W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR CUBA AT 21N80W. ELY UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AT 21N80W. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CIRCULATION WSW TO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 78W-85W. PART OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 18N-21N WEST OF 75W. WLY FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF THE TROUGH. TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT ARE FOUND JUST OFF OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER E VENZUELA NEAR 7N63W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA MAINLY E TO 32N68W AND BEYOND. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF CUBA TO ANOTHER LOW CENTERED NE OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N60W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC JUST E OF THE TROUGH AXIS WHICH LIES ALONG 60W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N74W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO S GEORGIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N-32N WEST OF 79W. BETWEEN 73W-79W. A 1031 MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC VERY CLOSE TO THE AZORES IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 15N-30N EAST OF 50W. TYPICAL PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THAT ARE. A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 18N21W COVERING MOST OF THE E ATLANTIC. $$ GR