000 AXNT20 KNHC 170010 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 21W/22W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 15 KT. POSITION IS BASED ON UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM DAKAR SENEGAL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 20W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA...E OF THE WAVE AXIS... FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 10W-17W. HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 50W-54W. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W/75W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 71W-73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER JAMAICA FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 76W-79W. TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA ALONG 91W S OF 21N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN 89W-93W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 6N30W 6N40W 9N55W 9N62W. OUTSIDE OF TROPICAL WAVES... ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 26W-32W...AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 35W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86W. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. A STATIONARY FRONT IS INLAND FROM S GEORGIA TO S LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER S LOUISIANA AND S MISSISSIPPI FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 88W-93W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND S GEORGIA FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 81W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N85W...JUST SLIGHTLY NE OF THE SURFACE HIGH. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 25N-35N BETWEEN 70W-95W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR CUBA AT 21N80W. NELY CYCLONIC FLOW IS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 25N AND E OF 90W. SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF DUE TO THE STATIONARY FRONT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING W. CARIBBEAN SEA... SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST VELOCITIES OF 25 KT ARE RECORDED BY BUOY 42058 N OF COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 7N-16N BETWEEN 80W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL CUBA FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 77W-81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR CUBA AT 21N80W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 75W-90W. WLY FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL ALSO AFFECT THE E CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1013 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N77W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS W TO S GEORGIA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 73W-79W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 37N34W IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N AND W OF 70W. A LOW IS FURTHER E AT 23N59W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 18N BETWEEN 50W-70W. A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 18N16W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 5N AND E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA