000
AXNT20 KNHC 161748
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W S OF 20N MOVING 
W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN AND 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE 
AXIS FROM 17N-19N WITHIN 240 NM W OF AXIS. MOISTURE FROM THIS 
WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND 
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W S OF 
18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ALSO ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF 
HISPANIOLA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN N PENINSULA AND 
GUATEMALA ALONG 89W/90W S OF 21N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
WITHIN 300 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 6N40W 6N45W 9N55W 8N60W.  
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 
16W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE 
AXIS FROM 45W-49W.   

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF FROM 21N-26N ALONG 95W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE COAST OF MEXICO 
S OF 23N. A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 
27N85W. PRES PATTERN REMAINS VERY WEAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF 
WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER 
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER OFF THE SW COAST 
OF MEXICO. THE FLOW AROUND THESE TO FEATURES IS PRODUCING UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE AND ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SURFACE DISCUSSED ABOVE. UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN 
LOUISIANA WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM 20N TO 30N 
BETWEEN 85W-95W.
  
CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN JUST S OF CUBA NEAR 21N78W. TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 
CIRCULATION W TO BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE TROUGH. WLY FLOW 
AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 
THE TROUGH...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF THE 
TROUGH. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR NEAR 7N64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA NE TO 32N72W. 
DOWNSTREAM TROUGH WITH AXIS FROM 32N49W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
NEAR 23N62W CONTINUING TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN AREA OF 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE TROUGH 
AXIS....WITH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED NE WITHIN 200 NM 
E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
32N35W TO 25N26W. E OF THE RIDGE AN UPPER TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA 
FROM 32N22W TO 27N29N. S OF THE TROUGH A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER W AFRICA COVERING THE ATLC E S OF 25N E OF 42W. 
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE RIDGE 
FROM 20N-28N E OF 35W. 
 
$$
DGS