000 AXNT20 KNHC 161059 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR 51W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-19N. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NOW ENTERED A MORE MOIST UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MASKING THE SURFACE SIGNATURE. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS OVER NE HONDURAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 8N30W 8N45W 9N55W 10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OUT OF W AFRICA FROM 10.5N-14.5N BETWEEN 16W-19W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S OF THE ITCZ FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 30W-50W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N EAST OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 94W/95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE COAST OF MEXICO. SURFACE WINDS REMAINS NEAR 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS DRIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FATHER WEST OVER NW MEXICO MOVING W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WEST OF 94W. AN UPPER HIGH DOMINATES SOUTH MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. RIDGING WITH SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N AND E OF 92W. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NE SECTOR OF THE GULF. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. WILL REACH THE NE GULF COAST/NORTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. WLY FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR NEAR 7N64W. TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 68W-71W. ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN E CUBA AND JAMAICA AND ALSO WITHIN 60/80 NM WEST OF JAMAICA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE AFFECTING THE SW CARIBBEAN...NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 38N34W EXTENDING A RIDGE WWD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM A HIGH LOCATED OVER ALABAMA. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE LIES AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH CROSSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW IS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA WHILE A CLOSE UPPER LOW IS FURTHER E AT 26N58W. BOTH LOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA COVERING THE ATLC EAST OF 40W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 60W-80W. $$ GR