000 AXNT20 KNHC 160551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUL 16 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED AHEAD NEAR 49W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA. THE WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V PATTERN AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN END OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 17N-18.5N. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 65W SOUTH OF 19N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NOW ENTERED A MORE MOIST UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MASKING THE SURFACE CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION. THE SAN JUAN RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 84W/85W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE JUST BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS OVER NE HONDURAS...THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NICARAGUA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 7N30W 7N40W 8N50W 9N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOSTLY INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 8W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE ITCZ FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 40W-48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND ELSEWHERE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0300 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG 91W/92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF NW OF KEY WEST IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. SURFACE WINDS REMAINS NEAR 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS DRIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS FATHER WEST OVER N MEXICO NEAR 28N106W MOVING W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG WESTERN MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE GULF WEST OF 94W. AN UPPER HIGH DOMINATES SOUTH MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. RIDGING WITH SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF N OF 23N AND E OF 92W. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WWD. A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SE U.S. WILL REACH THE NE GULF COAST ON MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES...THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY SOUTH SINCE YESTERDAY. THE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. WLY FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER HIGH REMAINS OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR NEAR 7N64W. TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SEEN JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 68W-72W. ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BETWEEN E CUBA AND JAMAICA AND ALSO WITHIN 60/80 NM WEST OF JAMAICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 38N33W EXTENDING A RIDGE WWD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC FROM A HIGH LOCATED OVER ALABAMA. SOUTH OF THE RIDGE LIES AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH CROSSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N90W. A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IS OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W. A CLOSE LOW IS FURTHER E AT 26N58W. BOTH LOWS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W AFRICA COVERING THE ATLC EAST OF 40W. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 60W-80W. $$ GR