000 AXNT20 KNHC 151728 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED THAN IT WAS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 18N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS NOW ENTERED A MORE MOIST UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND MIGHT BE AIDING IN DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. VERY LITTLE WAVE SIGNATURE IS NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AHEAD TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN THE ONES FURTHER EAST...HOWEVER IT AS WELL IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED. THE WAVE WAS ADJUSTED AHEAD DUE TO A FEW BUOY/SHIPS OBSERVATIONS WHICH DISPLAYED SOME WIND SHIFTS. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 80W-83W. DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXTEND WELL BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS. FOR MORE DISCUSSION ON THE CARIBBEAN WAVES REFER TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA DISCUSSION. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 6N24W 8N39W 10N60W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA OUT TO 21W. THIS PRECIP APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER RATHER WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL INTRODUCED IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH A FEW PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-33W AND 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS LINGERING IN THE CENTRAL GULF...AS OF 1500 UTC...THE BOUNDARY LIES FROM THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE SOUTHWARD TO 24N91W. THIS BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. DRY/STABLE AIR IS PUSHING IN BEHIND THE WEAK FEATURE SUPPLYING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA. THE UPPER LOW WHICH HAS DRIFTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS WEEK IS FARTHER WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE MEXICAN COASTLINE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 96W-98W IN A NARROW AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRY UPPER LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF DRYING OUT A GOOD PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF TOMORROW AND MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN FEATURES IN THE CARIBBEAN ARE THE TWO TROPICAL WAVES IN THE REGION. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE IS WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE LIKELY ENHANCED BY THE ITCZ AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WAVE IS BETTER ORGANIZED. MUCH OF THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE ANALYZED WAVE AXIS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 80W-84W. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING BETWEEN THESE WAVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND OPEN WATERS. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS IS CONTRIBUTED MOSTLY TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. TO SUMMARIZE...ESSENTIALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE DRIEST AREA IS WEST OF 84W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS PRESENT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN AZORES EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLC...FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH SCATTERED PATCHES OF MOISTURE. A SMALL WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 63W FROM 27N-30N WHERE A WEAK WIND SHIFT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN IN THE AREA. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE ATLANTIC EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 62W-75W. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE TROPICAL WAVES IN THE CARIBBEAN. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BROAD RIDGING COVERS THE REGION WEST OF 75W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 30N47W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 21N24W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. $$ CANGIALOSI