000 AXNT20 KNHC 151051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 15 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. MOISTURE FROM THIS WAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON MONDAY AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 60W/61W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO EARLY SUNDAY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST AROUND 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-20N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 79W-84W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTH FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND WESTERN CUBA SUNDAY EVENING. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N15W 9N32W 9N40W 9N50W 10N59W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100/130 NM SOUTH OF THE AXIS EAST OF 32W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 80/100 NM SOUTH WEST OF 39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 0900 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W/91W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE PERSIST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WIND ARE MAINLY LIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W MOVING W. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W GULF WEST OF 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BOTH MOVE W IN TANDEM...TAKING ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. CARIBBEAN SEA... TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 79W-84W. A LINE OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST S OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-83W...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER HIGH COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 14N-20N WEST OF 80W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF 14N. ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED OVER E VENEZUELA NEAR 6N63W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING MAINLY N ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH COVERING NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE WESTERN AZORES EXTENDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLC...FLORIDA AND THE N GULF. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING MAINLY ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 20W-60W. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 67W-70W POSSIBLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A SHORT WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH...ALSO KNOWN AS TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXTENDS MAINLY EAST TO WEST ALONG 24/25N FROM AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 28N58W ACROSS THE STRAIT OF FLORIDA TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LOW IS FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 23N73W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THAT AREA...AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. DRY AIR AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING THE W ATLC. ANOTHER LOW IS FURTHER E AT 30N47W. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC FROM AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 22N24W. ACCORDING TO THE 15/0900 UTC SAHARAN AIR LAYER FROM CIMSS...THE LEADING EDGE OF THE AFRICAN DUST REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. $$ GR