000
AXNT20 KNHC 142350
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.  
A GOOD AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE 
FROM 2N-15N BETWEEN 28W-35W.   

A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 
57W/58W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION IS PRESENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W SOUTH OF 
21N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN 
THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF N COLOMBIA.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 
18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-73W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER 
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 68W-74W.    

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N20W 10N33W 8N45W 11N57W 
10N62W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG 
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 13W-20W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
20W-60W.    

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 29N88W 21N87W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 85W-89W MOVING W.  
SURFACE WINDS ARE PREDOMINATELY ONLY 5-10 KT THROUGHOUT THE GULF 
OF MEXICO.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 26N99W MOVING W.  CYCLONIC 
FLOW IS FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 90W-110W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E 
OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE 
W GULF FROM 18N-32N BETWEEN 93W-99W.  EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH 
AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BOTH MOVE W IN TANDEM THUS SHIFTING 
CONVECTION W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE 
AFFECTING THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  TYPICAL SURFACE TRADEWINDS ARE 
NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE.  
STRONGEST VELOCITIES OF 20 KT ARE RECORDED BY BUOY 42058 N OF 
COLOMBIA.  ADDITIONAL SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE 
SW CARIBBEAN GUATEMALA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 78W-83W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA 
BETWEEN 76W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER EL SALVADOR NEAR 14N89W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS 
FROM 10N-19N BETWEEN 83W-96W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS FROM 13N-20N 
BETWEEN 70W-80W.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS S OF 13N.  A HIGH IS E 
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 10N57W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 
5N-15N BETWEEN 50W-65W.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO MOVE W WITH THE 
TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 38N35W IS PRODUCING MAINLY 
ELY SURFACE FLOW WITH FAIR WEATHER FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 
20W-65W.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 
HISPANIOLA FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 67W-71W POSSIBLY DUE TO THE 
TROPICAL WAVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LOW IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC NEAR 24N74W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 
70W-80W.  ANOTHER LOW IS FURTHER E AT 30N47W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS 
N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-53W.  A LARGE HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE 
COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 22N24W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 10N 
AND E OF 40W. 
 
$$
FORMOSA