000 AXNT20 KNHC 141724 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AHEAD ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MUCH LESS DEFINED TODAY THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS STILL EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 56W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. VERY LITTLE SIGNATURE AND PRECIP IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 71W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE HAS BEEN WEAKENING OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE AXIS REMAINS EASY TO LOCATE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 300 NM OR SO...CONCENTRATED MOSTLY N OF 17N. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DOES SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE AXIS ESPECIALLY IN TSTMS. CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MAINLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC REGION EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN EXTENSION WHICH CUTS ACROSS S MEXICO. THIS WAVE AXIS IS ALONG 95W SOUTH OF 18N. A FAIR AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 8N. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N23W 9N40W 11N55W 10N63W. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA OUT TO 20W FROM 5N-12N. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSSIBLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL WAVE. OTHERWISE...THE ITCZ IS RELATIVELY QUIET WITH ONLY ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LINGER AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE BOUNDARY LIES ALONG 29N88W 22N85W. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE AXIS WITH SOME MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FARTHER EAST OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. IN THE WESTERN GULF...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ON THE MOIST EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM SOUTH MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GULF W OF 91W. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOST ORGANIZED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 93W-96W WHERE A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EAST PACIFIC MAY BE AIDING IN TRIGGERING THIS ACTIVITY. THE UPPER LOW AND WEAKENING SFC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TAKING ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH IT. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF THIS WEEKEND AS DRY/STABLE UPPER LEVEL AIR PUSHES WESTWARD. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MORE IMPRESSIVE ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE BASE OF THE WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WHERE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 67W-80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER W CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NORTHERLY FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS A GOOD PORTION OF THE W CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS HAITI TO NEAR 14N74W. MOIST SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS PULLING MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO THE EASTERN ISLANDS EMBEDDED WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GENERATED BY THE TROPICAL WAVE. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WITH IT...TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SAT AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AT THE SURFACE...THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE IS THE SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE. FAIR WEATHER LIES UNDER THE RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THERE IS ONE AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 63W-70W. THIS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE AND A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW NEAR 25N64W. ELSEWHERE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER RIDGING LIES WEST OF 65W. THE UPPER LOW AIDING IN TRIGGERING UNSETTLED WEATHER NEAR 25N64W HAS TROUGHING WHICH EXTENDS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SLIGHT RIDGING LIES TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN 50W-60W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN 40W-50W. UPPER RIDGING IS IN PLACE EAST OF 40W. NONE OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...BESIDES FOR THE UPPER LOW MENTIONED EARLIER...ARE CAUSING ANY LARGE AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ CANGIALOSI