000 AXNT20 KNHC 141111 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. CLEAR EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC TURNING SHOWS UP IN CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 26W AND 34W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS OCCUR FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 28W AND 31W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE REACHES THE FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N52W 10N55W 11N58W 11N60W 11N62W...PROBABLY MORE WITH THE ITCZ THAN ANYTHING ELSE. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE HAS REACHED THE EASTERN END OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 69W/70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N64W TO 16N72W. THE WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 25N BETWEEN 57W AND 68W. THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INTERIOR MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA PROBABLY ARE MORE RELATED TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. ...THE ITCZ... 12N15W 11N27W 9N30W 7N40W 8N52W 9N57W 8N66W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA AND WEST OF SIERRA LEONE FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N25W 7N20W 9N17W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVERS EVERYTHING FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 88W AND 104W...FROM THE GULF WATERS TO INTERIOR MEXICO. THE LOW CENTER IS NEAR 24N97W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE EAST OF 88W IS FILLED WITH A MIXTURE OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW FROM RESIDUAL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...A NORTHERN FLORIDA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER...AND A POSSIBLY-FORMING MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION OCCUR EAST OF 89W OVER THE GULF WATERS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE MAIN FEATURE IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N64W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N73W. THE 69W/70W TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W AND BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...PROBABLY NEAR THE ITCZ. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING OVER PANAMA AND IN NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...PART OF THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH MANY TIMES EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 5 TO 6 DAYS WEAKENED AND DISAPPEARED. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 23N64W- 16N73W TROUGH. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF 35N/36N. THE RIDGE GOES FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 36N64W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM THE AZORES TO 32N30W TO 29N37W TO A LOW CENTER 27N45W TO A DEVELOPING LOW CENTER NEAR 25N62W TO ANOTHER LOW CENTER NEAR 22N64W TO 16N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...EXCEPT FOR MOISTURE FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 53W AND 68W...FROM 14N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 24W AND 33W WITH THE 28W/29W TROPICAL WAVE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 12N30W. A TROUGH GOES FROM THE 12N30W LOW CENTER TO 19N31W AND 22N31W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 21N20W TO 28N20W TO 35N17W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH FLORIDA NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ. $$ MT