000 AXNT20 KNHC 140611 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS CLEARED THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND IS ALONG 26W/28W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 KT. CLEAR EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC TURNING SHOWS UP IN CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 25W AND 31W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W/52W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS WAVE REACHES FRENCH GUIANA. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE MONA PASSAGE ALONG 68W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N64W TO 16N73W. THE WAVE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W...FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 92W/93W MOVING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THIS PART OF MEXICO...AND ELSEWHERE INLAND IN MEXICO SOUTH OF 20N...TO THE SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 11N26W 11N29W 7N40W 8N51W 8N54W 9N67W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 26W AND 46W...AND FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 36W AND 48W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVERS EVERYTHING FROM 16N TO 32N BETWEEN 88W AND 104W...FROM THE GULF WATERS TO INTERIOR MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN MEXICO FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 91W AND 104W...FROM THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC INTO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE WEATHER PATTERN TO THE EAST OF 88W IS FILLED WITH A MIXTURE OF UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW FROM RESIDUAL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...A NORTHERN FLORIDA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER...AND A POSSIBLY-FORMING MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SOME DISSIPATING PRECIPITATION ARE FROM WESTERN CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 80W AND 88W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ONE MAIN FEATURE IS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 23N64W INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N73W. THE 68W TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE IS MOVING RIGHT THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 70W...FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE WITH THE ITCZ SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE GULF OR URABA AND ADJACENT AREAS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...AND FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...PART OF THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH MANY TIMES EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE THAT WAS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE LAST 5 TO 6 DAYS WEAKENED AND DISAPPEARED. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA 23N64W- 16N73W TROUGH. THIS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF 35N/36N. THE RIDGE GOES FROM CENTRAL TENNESSEE EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 36N64W. IT APPEARS THAT THE 23N64W-16N73W TROUGH HAS ITS ORIGINS EVEN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...GOING FROM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 36N30W TO A SECOND ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 30N46W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 13N TO 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W IS THE ONLY MOISTURE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DRY AIR...ALONG WITH THE MOISTURE AROUND THE 26W/28W TROPICAL WAVE...FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GOES FROM 20N29W TO 35N20W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH FLORIDA NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ. $$ MT