000 AXNT20 KNHC 131057 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WEAKENING WITH TIME AND OTHERS DEVELOPING...ARE FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...AND FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 23W AND 29W...IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ISOLATED CELLS ARE FROM 12N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO 21N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF MOST OF THE STRONG PRECIPITATION FROM 4 TO 6 HOURS AGO ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED. A BIG BALL OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG THE WESTERN COLOMBIA COAST FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. THIS MASS OF PRECIPITATION PROBABLY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ. MORE NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W... POSSIBLY WITH THE WAVE...AND PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... 13N16W 11N21W 10N24W 8N35W 8N44W 7N48W 6N54W 6N59W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N30W 8N41W 6N50W 5N59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THANKS TO THE LOW CENTER WHICH WAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING...AND WHICH NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MIXED IN WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 85W...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON 13/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. PRESSURES ARE HIGH IN THIS AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE STRONG PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA HAS WEAKENED...WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES DURING THE LAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. THE NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE WEST COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W. THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED TO 82W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN OFF THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA/COSTA RICA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE ACCOMPANYING THE 62W/63W TROPICAL WAVE...IN GENERAL FROM 10N TO 21N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA NEAR 14N65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN BETWEEN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 14N65W HIGH CENTER AND THE 85W RIDGE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THIS AREA OF DRY AIR. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN 13/0600 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA...MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OF 30N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER APPEARS TO BE FORMING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 77W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N33W TO 29N44W TO 26N56W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH FLORIDA NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 22W/24W FROM 18N BEYOND 32N. A SMALL MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER MAY BE FORMING ABOUT 150 NM WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT