000 AXNT20 KNHC 130616 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21W/22W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING WEST 15 KT. ANY NEARBY PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ISOLATED CELLS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION...PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER SECTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH IN THE AREA...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANY KIND OF DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA COAST AND ALONG THE EASTERN PANAMA BORDER WITH COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. OTHER SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF WESTERN PANAMA TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. SOME OF THIS STRONG PRECIPITATION UNDOUBTEDLY IS RELATED TO THE ITCZ... AND SOME IS EASILY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 13N17W 11N21W 11N23W 9N30W 8N40W 8N44W 7N46W 5N54W 5N59W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 23W AND 28W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM NORTHWESTERN SURINAME INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL GUYANA TO NORTHWESTERN COASTAL GUYANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CYCLONIC FLOW NOW COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THANKS TO THE LOW CENTER WHICH WAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA YESTERDAY MORNING...AND WHICH NOW HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS MIXED IN WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 85W...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ON 13/0000 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...RELATED TO THE 80W/81W TROPICAL WAVE...AND ACCOMPANYING THE ITCZ. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM CENTRAL NICARAGUA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO...IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA NEAR 14N65W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN BETWEEN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 14N65W HIGH CENTER AND THE 85W RIDGE. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES INTO THIS AREA OF DRY AIR. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN 13/0000 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA...MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH OF 30N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER MAY FORM IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 77W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 36N34W TO 29N45W TO 24N58W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH FLORIDA NORTH OF THE TROPICAL WAVES AND THE ITCZ. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 36N20W TO 32N23W TO 21N24W. A SMALL MIDDLE LEVEL LOW CENTER MAY BE FORMING NEAR 16N28W WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. $$ MT