000 AXNT20 KNHC 121105 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SIX HOURS AGO NO LONGER IS ALONG THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W/77W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE 14N71W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER FROM TWELVE HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE 12/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. NO DEEP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 9N20W 7N30W 6N40W 5N50W 6N54W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N14W 9N23W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N26W 7N36W 6N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N47W 5N57W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN-TO-SOUTH CENTRAL SECTION IS AFFECTING THE WEATHER EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM BELIZE TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST ARE IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W. OTHER AREAS OF PRECIPITATION OVER ANDROS ISLAND AND ELSEWHERE FROM 22.5N TO 25.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W MAY BE SEEING PRECIPITATION ALSO...STILL...AS SOME OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE UNDERGONE WARMING DURING THE LAST FOUR TO FIVE HOURS. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPINNING AROUND THE LOW CENTER IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 21N106W IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL MEXICO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALSO EASILY IS CONTRIBUTING SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF IT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA/ EASTERN PANAMA BORDER...AND ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA ARE PROBABLY RELATED TO THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE BETWEEN 80W AND COASTAL CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE REST OF COSTA RICA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN BELIZE TO 20N ALONG THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA... WITHIN 100 NM FROM SHORE...UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 84W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL 75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 13N74W 16N70W 20N66W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE 76W/77W TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO IS REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NOW. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM ONE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TOWARD ANOTHER ONE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA IS IN DIFFLUENT FLOW IN BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER AND THE 84W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N69W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 21N64W TO 24N69W TO 30N69W BEYOND 34N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN THANKS TO A 34N37W LOW CENTER. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS CENTER TO 30N42W 28N51W 27N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 17N/18N BETWEEN 30W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N58W 30N55W 34N52W BREAKS UP THE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH FLORIDA. $$ MT