000 AXNT20 KNHC 120552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING WITH TIME...FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 53W AND 56W. A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. THE 14N71W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER FROM TWELVE HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IN THE 12/0300 UTC CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DATA. NO DEEP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE. ...THE ITCZ... 11N15W 9N20W 7N30W 6N40W 7N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N13W 8N22W 8N27W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N28W 6N36W 6N44W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N47W 7N55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION IS AFFECTING WEATHER EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE TO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF BELIZE AND PARTS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW CENTER AND THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE OCCURRING IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST WATERS OF CUBA TO ANDROS ISLAND BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W...THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER... AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 20N105W IN SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL MEXICO. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4-E IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ALSO EASILY IS CONTRIBUTING SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF IT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 84W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL 75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO COVERS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 13N74W 16N70W 20N66W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO AREAS OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE 75W/76W TROPICAL WAVE IS SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15 KT. A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALSO IS REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...MOVING TOWARD HISPANIOLA NOW. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH DRY AIR ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM ONE AREA OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TOWARD ANOTHER ONE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA IS IN DIFFLUENT FLOW IN BETWEEN THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER AND THE 84W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N69W. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 21N64W TO 24N69W TO 30N69W BEYOND 34N68W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN THANKS TO A 35N36W LOW CENTER. A TROUGH GOES FROM THIS CENTER TO 30N42W 28N51W 27N63W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS EVERYWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 17N/18N BETWEEN 30W AND 72W. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N59W 29N55W 33N53W 37N50W BREAKS UP THE BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH FLORIDA. $$ MT