000
AXNT20 KNHC 112347
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 15N MOVING WNW AT AROUND 15 KT 
WITH A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. THIS SYSTEM HAS 
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT 
SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. A 
SMALL CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 12N-13N BETWEEN 52W-53W. THE WAVE 
WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT AND THU. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W/74W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 
SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS 
PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 7N30W 7N45W 7N50W. CLUSTERS 
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 3N-10N E 
OF 52W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 24N85W WITH 
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING MAINLY WEST ACROSS THE GULF TO THE 
COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE N GULF. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
UPPER LOW. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS SOUTH 
MEXICO INTO THE S GULF PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA AND THE STATE OF FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT 
FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY. AT THE SURFACE...THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE N 
GULF GIVING THE AREA E/SE WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS WEATHER 
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 76W ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS 
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE 
W CARIBBEAN WHERE THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN JUST 
SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM AN UPPER HIGH 
LOCATED NEAR 12N52W COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH IS SPREADING 
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN. ONCE AGAIN...SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG 
CUBA. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS BLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN BUT ARE BELOW GALE FORCE. THE HIGHEST VELOCITIES OF 
25-30 KT ARE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N66W WITH UPPER RIDGE 
COVERING THE ATLC FROM 60W-80W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF THE UPPER 
RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER HIGH IS 
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N52W COVERING THE AREA S OF 19N 
FROM 40W-63W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 
21N FROM 35W-50W WITH THE UPPER LOW N OF THE REGION. A SURFACE 
TROUGH REFLECTION ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 51N51W THEN CONTINUES SSW 
TO 22N57W. AT THE SURFACE...THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE 
REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC AS IS USUAL FOR THIS TIME 
OF THE YEAR. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MODERATE ELY WINDS ACROSS 
THE ATLC. 

$$
GR