000
AXNT20 KNHC 110503
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... 
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT WITH A 1012 
MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS RATHER WELL 
DEFINED...THE LOW IS LESS DEFINED THAN 24 HOURS AGO. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 
45W-49W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 69W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE 
REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PARTIALLY MASKING THE 
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 8N33W 11N50W 10N62W. IN 
ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW... 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 10W-46W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 
60W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LOW IS IN THE E GULF NEAR 24N84W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH 
COVERING THE AREA E OF 88W. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 
FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 30N79W ACROSS N OF DAYTONA TO NEAR TAMPA 
INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 25N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 29N E OF 85W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE 
W ATLC. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF WITH 
THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NW MEXICO NE TO THE UPPER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE S GULF S OF 
22N. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE 
S GULF PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 
22N FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE E OF 93W TO OVER CUBA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ACROSS 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS 
BEING ADVECTED ACROSS MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE 
W CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W 
OF 81W TO OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN. MID/UPPER TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA SSE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
THE ABC ISLANDS DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 
10N E OF 78W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 
COLOMBIA ALONG THE S COAST OF PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. 
MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN 
BUT WITH BELOW GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE N COAST OF 
COLOMBIA IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N66W WITH UPPER RIDGE 
COVERING THE ATLC FROM 58W-80W. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW IS A 
MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED E OF THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 27N73W 
MOVING NORTHWARD. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 29N W OF 76W TO OVER 
FLORIDA. SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SE BAHAMA ISLANDS WITHIN 60 NM OF 
22N73.5W. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N51W 
COVERING THE AREA S OF 20N FROM 40W-61W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH 
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 30W-58W WITH THE UPPER LOW 
N OF THE REGION. AN EMBEDDED LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS 
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE NEAR 29N52W. A SURFACE TROUGH REFLECTION 
EXTENDS FROM 31N49W TO 25N53W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E 
ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING OFF AFRICA NEAR 24N15W TO 20N34W. 
AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY 
ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF 
THE TROPICAL ATLC. 

$$
WALLACE