000 AXNT20 KNHC 102351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM MON JUL 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W S OF 14N MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE IS NEAR 11N. SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS MINIMAL. IT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...SO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY... SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 46W-49W. COMPUTER MODELS FORECAST THE WAVE TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES ON WEDNESDAY AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...INCREASING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PARTS OF PUERTO RICO MAINLY THIS MORNING. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS AHEAD OF THE WAVE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 67W-69W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER PARTS OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE WAVE IS ALSO ENHANCING THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA. THIS WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N16W 10N30W 9N44W 9N50W 9N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70/90 NM NORTH OF THE AXIS FROM 53W-60W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND FROM 5N-10N EAST OF 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A CUT-OFF LOW IS OVER THE E GULF NEAR 25N84W. A NARROWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FROM THE UPPER LOW TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR 25N86W. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GUATEMALA IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THAT AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW NW OF HISPANIOLA SSE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE ABC AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE UPPER LOW IS STILL PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTEND FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 72W-77W. ONSHORE SURFACE WIND FLOW AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ARE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NICARAGUA AND NE HONDURAS. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS BLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT ARE CURRENTLY BELOW GALE FORCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...REACHING GALE FORCE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NARROWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FAR E US AND W ATLC INTO THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N78W...THEN CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN AROUND 100 NM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NW OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 24N72W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N54W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 23N E OF 50W WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 70W. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM... ONLY PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE N OF 15N EAST OF 60W. $$ GR