000 AXNT20 KNHC 101810 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR IF IN FACT ANYTHING HAPPENS AT ALL. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ITCZ IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W. AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM PUERTO RICO SOUTHWARD...MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER ABOUT 75 NM NORTH OF THE CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 23N72W TO 18N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF THE EASTERN END OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A FEW OTHER POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE HEAVILY EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR NEAR 20N60W AND 17N56W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW EXISTS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM 17N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...AND IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 18.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W FROM THE CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. ...THE ITCZ... 11N16W 9N30W 9N41W 9N47W 8N55W 8N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 11N EAST OF 33W...FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 33W AND 40W...FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W...AND WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N50W 9N56W 10N63W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 75W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A 31N80W LOW CENTER TO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 24N84W SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LOW CENTER TO 23N90W TO A DEVELOPING LOW CENTER NEAR 23N99W IN THE EAST CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL U.S.A. TO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF THE TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM 27N108W IN WESTERN MEXICO BEYOND WEST TEXAS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD...FROM 22N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 75W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. COAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM A LOW CENTER ABOUT 75 NM NORTH OF THE CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 23N72W TO 18N69W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF THE EASTERN END OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A FEW OTHER POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERS ARE HEAVILY EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR NEAR 20N60W AND 17N56W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW EXISTS FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM 17N TO 18.5N BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...AND IN PARTS OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 18.5N TO 19.5N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W FROM THE CAICOS ISLANDS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 26N TO 33N BETWEEN 68W AND 74W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W FROM THE NORTHEAST...TO 30N80W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR TAMPA INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS NEAR 24N87W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 66W/67W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING CLOSE TO THE CAICOS ISLANDS 23N72W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN WATERS FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW IS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO FROM 17N TO 18.5 BETWEEN 66W AND 68W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIDE OF CENTRAL PANAMA...NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA COASTAL WATERS...AND EVEN MORE ALONG THE COAST TO NICARAGUA FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN 83W AND 84.5W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 9N77W 10N84W...POSSIBLY HELPING TO DEVELOP SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION. ONSHORE SURFACE WIND FLOW AND SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT MAY BE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALSO EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM A LITTLE BIT WEST OF LAKE NICARAGUA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 75W... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTER IS NEAR 30N63W. A RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR 500 NM OR SO. THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS COVERED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER NEAR 32N34W. CYCLONIC FLOW EASILY COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 25W AND 52W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 47W...AND FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. PARTS OF A COLD FRONT REACH 32N52W...PART OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. $$ MT