000 AXNT20 KNHC 101037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W S OF 14N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A WELL DEFINED 1012 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW/WAVE IS BETTER ORGANIZED...IT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SLOW ANY TROPICAL FORMATION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 42W-47W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE 17N64W-23N69W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 15N WHICH IS NO LONGER IN THE ATLC BASIN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 8N24W 7N37W 10N43W 7N56W 9N63W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 225 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 32W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N-10N E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NARROWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FAR E US AND W ATLC INTO THE GULF THROUGH JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 25N90W. ACCOMPANYING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO NEAR 32N78W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA TO NEAR 26N85W. THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF. DUE TO THE DRY CONTINENTAL AIR ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 24N. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF S OF 24N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATES STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N FROM 93W-97W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA SSE TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN THE ABC AND WINDWARD ISLANDS DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 76W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT ARE BELOW GALE FORCE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NARROWING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE FAR E US AND W ATLC INTO THE GULF THROUGH 32N79W ACROSS JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF. ACCOMPANYING DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO NEAR 32N78W WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 31N. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N71W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 27N57W WITH DIFFLUENCE ON THE FAR W EDGE ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 23N E OF 50W WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 75W. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF DUST COMING OFF AFRICA NOW IS LESSENING. $$ WALLACE