000 AXNT20 KNHC 100437 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON JUL 10 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT WITH A WELL DEFINED 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW/WAVE IS BETTER ORGANIZED...IT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SLOW ANY TROPICAL FORMATION WILL BE SLOW TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 39W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS PARTIALLY MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 16N61W-20N65W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BENEATH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE...SO LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 8N20W 10N39W 7N50W 9N61W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW... SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 49W-53W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 200/225 NM FROM 31W-39W AND FROM 45W-60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E OF 30W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND THE W ATLC DIPS INTO THE GULF AND IS BEING NARROWED BY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE CENTRAL US ACROSS THE SE US. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA SW TO NEAR 26N90W. ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA TO NEAR 27N85W. THE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF W OF 90W. DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N FROM 89W-94W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF S OF 25N. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 20N FROM 93W-96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 89W. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA SSE TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 80W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE ITCZ AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT ARE BELOW GALE FORCE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND FAR W ATLC CONTINUES TO MOVE E WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS THROUGH 32N76W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM W CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO NEAR 30N74W. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N71W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N55W WITH DIFFLUENCE ON THE FAR W EDGE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF THE PUERTO RICO FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN 65W-70W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC N OF 23N E OF 48W WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS N OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 75W. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF DUST COMING OFF AFRICA NOW IS LESSENING. $$ WALLACE