000 AXNT20 KNHC 091811 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-12N BETWEEN 37W-45W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W/62W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 60W-64W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND BENEATH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE...SO LITTLE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE S OF 15N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 7N30W 9N40W 6N45W 10N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 11W-17W...AND FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 17W-22W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 45W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF S AMERICA FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 51W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA COAST ALONG 29N80W 28N82W DISSIPATING TO 28N88W. WINDS ARE BASICALLY 10 KT N OF THE FRONT AND 5 KT S OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 84W-90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 90W-92W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AIRMASS CONVECTION IS OVER THE W GULF FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 93W-97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 94W-97W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N84W 23N98W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA. EXPECT...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE S GULF S OF 26N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE HIGHEST VELOCITIES ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER LEEWARD ISLANDS...SEE ABOVE. A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 80W-90W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N67W PRODUCING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION DUE TO THE TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N77W AND EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N57W. ELY FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 15W-70W. AFRICAN DUST IS ALSO NOTED FROM EQ-30N E OF 50W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 55W-75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-26N BETWEEN 62W-70W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W-52W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E... N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-35W WITH AXIS ALONG 30W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 10W-25W. ELY FLOW IS PRIMARILY OVER THE TROPICS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W. $$ FORMOSA