000 AXNT20 KNHC 091051 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUL 09 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 14N MOVING W 20 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED LOW/MID SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 34W-44W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 56W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 15N MOVING W 20 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND BENEATH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE...SO LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 7N22W 7N30W 9N39W 6N46W 10N58W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 45W-57W AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA S OF 13N W OF 8W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 20W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US EXTENDS INTO THE GULF N OF 24N E OF 97W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA ALONG 29N88W TO NEAR 27N92W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS THE ENTIRE S GULF S OF 24N. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 22N FROM 93W-97W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROADENING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM PANAMA THROUGH THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG 17N84W TO 23N86W IN THE S GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 19N W OF 84W. BROAD UPPER LOW EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE ABC ISLANDS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA E OF 75W DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 68W-77W. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BUT BELOW GALE FORCE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND THE GULF IS MOVING INTO THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 77W WITH THE ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING THROUGH 32N76W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO TAMPA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NW OF THE FRONT TO THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO BEYOND 32N73W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LIEN FROM CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO BEYOND 32N75W. BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 57W-75W CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 22N70W EXTENDING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 66W FROM PUERTO RICO TO 25N. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA WITHIN 225 NM OF LINE 18N58W TO 27N72W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE UPPER LOW FROM 17N-28N BETWEEN 59W-71W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS. TWO UPPER LOWS ARE DIPPING S INTO THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC...ONE CENTERED JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N37W AND THE SECOND NEAR 31N19W. THE COMBINED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC WITH A WEAK UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN. BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 21N32W AND COVERS THE AREA S OF 26N FROM 25W-50W. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC E OF 75W. AFRICAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC BUT APPEARS TO BE LESSENING ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA. $$ WALLACE