000 AXNT20 KNHC 081737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUL 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 13N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH IMPROVING CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS SPREADING S OF THE ITCZ DUE TO THE WAVE WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 28W-36W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 14N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE ITCZ FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 48W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...SO LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 96W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 95W-98W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N17W 8N30W 7N40W 9N53W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 27W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE LOUISIANA COAST ALONG 28N80W 27N83W 28N88W 27N92W. A DISTINCT WINDSHIFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...HOWEVER...WIND VELOCITIES ARE BASICALLY ONLY 10 KT ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 82W-88W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM 28N-29N BETWEEN 91W-94W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 96W MOVING W. SEE ABOVE. WIDELY SCATTERED AIRMASS SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 80W-83W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N96W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 22N. SIGNIFICANT UPPER AIR MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA. EXPECT...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DISSIPATE BY LATE SUNDAY. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE W GULF W OF 92W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE HIGHEST VELOCITIES ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...SEE ABOVE. A 1008 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 78W-86W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 87W-89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE WITH CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 80W-90W. A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W PRODUCING NW CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT CONTINUED AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT LIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE PRESENTLY AT 53W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1017 MB LOW IS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N72W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N43W. ELY FLOW AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 15W-70W. AFRICAN DUST IS ALSO NOTED FROM EQ-30N E OF 50W SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 23N66W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-32N BETWEEN 55W-75W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W-52W. A RIDGE IS FURTHER E... N OF 20N BETWEEN 25W-35W WITH AXIS ALONG 30W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 10W-25W. ELY FLOW IS PRIMARILY OVER THE TROPICS FROM EQ-20N BETWEEN 10W-50W. $$ FORMOSA