000 AXNT20 KNHC 081033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 08 2006 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR... AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W S OF 12N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH MID SIGNATURE CURVATURE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 27W-34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 49W-55W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA...SO LITTLE SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W VENEZUELA. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 95W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N FROM 92W-97W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N15W 9N24W 11N47W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 34W-43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 27W-41W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US EXTENDING INTO THE N GULF N OF 25N WITH THE ACCOMPANYING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA ALONG 29N86W TO NEAR 27N94W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 21N97W ENHANCING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W CUBA. DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF S OF THE ABOVE FRONT E OF 86W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA INTO THE S CARIBBEAN THROUGH 12N78W NNW TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA NEAR 22N85W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION INLAND AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL/ SOUTH AMERICA S OF 19N W OF 77W. THIS CONVECTION IS ENHANCING BY THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA E OF 76W DRAWING DRIER AIR S OVER THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF 16N ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 63W-76W ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IN THE W ATLC. MODERATE/STRONG TRADEWINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... NARROWING UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS W/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO BEYOND 32N73W. DIFFLUENCE TO THE W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N79W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 27N75W TO BEYOND 32N73W. BROAD UPPER LOW COVERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC FROM 57W-74W CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 21N67W EXTENDING S INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR DOMINATES MOST OF THE AREA... SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SURROUND THE UPPER LOW FROM 16N-27N BETWEEN 62W-71W INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 16N55W-21N59W. BROAD UPPER HIGH DOMINATES MOST OF THE E ATLC CENTERED NEAR 24N34W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 26W-57W. UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC N OF 18N E OF 26W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER THE ATLC. AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF AFRICA COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM AFRICA TO THE E CARIBBEAN...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE TROPICAL FORMATION. $$ WALLACE